My Way-Too-Early 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary Predictions

Who’s bluffing, who’s building, and who I’m betting on in the 2028 Democratic circus way before the show even begins.

Introduction

The 2028 presidential election is still quite a ways away—just over 1,200 days, to be more precise. But in American politics, the circus never truly leaves town. The tents may come down, the crowds may thin, but behind the curtain, the next act is already rehearsing. The ringmaster’s whistle hasn’t blown yet, but you can already hear the elephants pacing backstage and the clowns applying foundation.

This is the first post (of many, I’m sure) where I dive into the 2028 presidential election. Here, I’ll be discussing who I have my eye on—and who I’d be willing to bet on—in the democratic primary.

I’ve made a list of sixteen potential candidates. Some are seasoned performers. Some are first-timers hoping to dazzle the crowd. And while I believe only three or four will make it to center stage, I believe most will, at the very least, launch exploratory committees in 2027. So let’s talk about odds, contingencies, and ambitions—because politics is a spectacle. And like any good Vegas act, I’m ready to place some bets.

The All-In Bets: Five I’d Stake the House On

I’d be willing to wager all my chips on five individuals making a run for the Democratic nomination in 2028. And I don’t mean that lightly. My predictions aren’t based on vibes or cable news chatter. They’re rooted in patterns, ambition, and incentives—what might be called Bayesian reasoning with a side of political gut. In other words, I’m constantly updating my priors: weighing past behaviors, current signals, and shifting political winds.

Presidential ambitions don’t sprout overnight. They simmer—quietly at first, then loudly once others arrive. They show up in Iowa visits, media tours, subtext-laden interviews, and strategic silence. Who someone hires, where they travel, what they post, what they don’t say—it all adds up.

So based on that model, here are the five I’m already counting in:

Ro Khanna

If there’s one candidate who’s not even pretending to play coy, it’s Ro Khanna. He’s been crisscrossing early primary states, running a populist barnstorming tour titled “Benefits Over Billionaires,” and picking high-profile fights with Republicans like J.D. Vance on X. Khanna has long positioned himself as a progressive alternative to the party establishment—Bernie with a Silicon Valley resume. He’s also been signaling to labor, to the working class, and to disillusioned Democrats that he gets it. Ro knows that if other progressives don’t run, there’s a vacuum on the left—and he would want to be first in line to fill it.

Gavin Newsom

Newsom is the glossy executive type the Democratic establishment tends to favor. His name has been floated since the day he became governor of California, and he hasn’t exactly shied away from national attention. Whether it’s his public feud with Ron DeSantis, his Fox News appearances, or his “just checking in” trips to red states, Newsom acts like a man who wants the big stage. And let’s not forget: he was one of the first high-profile Dems to say “yes” to campaign finance reform and “no” to fossil fuel money—before quietly accepting some of both. A paradox? Sure. But a ready-made candidate with infrastructure, name ID, and billionaire-friendly policy bona fides? Absolutely.

Pete Buttigieg

Mayor Pete may have temporarily faded from the spotlight, but make no mistake: he’s still in the game. His Transportation Secretary tenure was rocky at times (Southwest, Norfolk Southern, etc.), but he remains one of the most articulate, measured voices in the party. Buttigieg checks every resume box: veteran, cabinet member, former presidential candidate, Rhodes Scholar. He speaks seven languages and makes donors swoon. And despite his critics on the left, he’s popular with older moderates and party elites—many of whom still see him as a generational bridge between Bidenism and whatever comes next. He’s also been growing out a beard, which has been a superficial signal politicians send when they’re trying to reinvent themselves. He’ll run. He’ll raise money. And he’ll stay in the race longer than most.

Gretchen Whitmer

If Democrats are serious about flipping Michigan blue in 2028, Whitmer will be at the center of that effort. But she may not be content with playing the surrogate. Her 2022 reelection was a masterclass in coalition-building, and her calm, measured demeanor contrasts sharply with the chaotic energy that’s dominated the political sphere. She doesn’t chase headlines, but she delivers results. And in a party increasingly run by women, suburban voters, and educators, Whitmer might just emerge as the consensus choice—especially if others implode.

Andy Beshear

Beshear is the dark horse on this list, but a compelling one. He’s a Democrat who won twice in Kentucky, a state Trump carried by double digits. He’s not a firebrand or an ideologue. He’s just…competent. Steady. Popular. In a field filled with technocrats and talkers, Beshear could carve out a unique lane as the quiet governor who gets results, wins tough elections, and doesn’t scare anyone. He may not top early polls—but don’t be surprised if he gains momentum once voters start paying attention.

The White Male Governor’s Tier

Beshear is also a natural segue to my next group: Josh Shapiro, JB Pritzker, and Tim Walz—his fellow white male governors. I’d give Shapiro and Pritzker around a 60% probability of entering the race. Walz is around a one-in-three chance, in my eyes.

Josh Shapiro has quickly become a national player. He ran a tight, smart, scandal-free campaign in Pennsylvania and beat Doug Mastriano by double digits. He’s confident, composed, and focused. Shapiro might wait until 2032 or 2036, but he’s shown enough discipline and momentum that I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes a play for the White House.

JB Pritzker has something most Democratic hopefuls don’t: money. The billionaire governor of Illinois has been quietly building a progressive record on reproductive rights, labor protections, and infrastructure. He also has a knack for messaging and isn’t afraid to throw punches at Republicans. If he wants to run, he can self-fund early and wait for the pack to cannibalize itself.

Tim Walz is less flashy than his peers but no less competent. He’s a veteran, a former teacher, someone who speaks fluent Midwestern, and a former vice presidential hopeful. Minnesota isn’t a high-profile launchpad, but if Democrats want a unifying figure with credibility and calm, Walz could emerge as a contender.

Jasmine Crockett and the Party’s Future

Now, let’s talk about a name that’s not quite ready for center stage—but might be soon: Jasmine Crockett.

I believe the Democratic Party is quietly positioning Crockett as one of its future faces. She’s sharp, bold, and unafraid to say what many others won’t. She’s become a rising star in Congress and a media favorite. To me, 2028 is way too soon—she doesn’t yet have the national infrastructure—but this is a party that loves messing things up, so I’ll slip her in here with a 25% chance of launching a campaign. If the field is messy enough, I wouldn’t count out Crockett surprising people with a bold early move.

The One to Watch: AOC

If I were forced to choose one candidate as the most likely to transform the race, it’s Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

She checks every box: a magnetic personal story, national name recognition, a fiercely loyal grassroots base, and a message that aligns with what most Democratic voters actually want. And while the Democratic establishment often seems to believe that beating Trump means mimicking the GOP’s tone or courting moderates, AOC knows that real power comes from the base.

She’s already been on a quasi-campaign trail, joining Bernie Sanders on a “Fight Oligarchy” tour that drew massive crowds all across the nation. It wasn’t coastal elite wine-and-cheese politics—it was real. It was the kind of energy that actually moves people, and it proves what the party base is actually hungry for.

If you want another circus metaphor: AOC isn’t just another act in the tent. She’s the one who could tear the tent down and build something completely new.

And look at Zohran Mamdani’s recent victory in New York—a democratic socialist who won against a well-funded centrist. The future of the party isn’t in flirting with Liz Cheney or praising bipartisan deals that leave workers behind. It’s in delivering for working people—and being unapologetic about it.

AOC belongs at the top of this list with the others, but deserves her own section. Let me be clear: if I’m wagering everything on one candidate running in 2028, it’s Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

When she runs, AOC will instantly shift the race, the conversation, and the Democratic Party.

The “If, Then” Candidates

These are the conditional candidates. The ones whose decisions depend not just on ambition, but on timing, relationships, and the terrain of Democratic Party politics.

They’re still circling the tent—but if the right domino falls, they might just leap into the ring.

Cory Booker & Chris Murphy

Cory Booker and Chris Murphy are close friends and ideological cousins in the Senate. Both are media-savvy, earnest, and fluent in the language of liberal optimism. They’ve marched together, legislated together, and even filibustered together—most notably with Booker supporting Murphy in his 15-hour gun control filibuster back in 2016 and more recently Murphy sitting alongside Booker during his 25-hour marathon speech.

That closeness makes a head-to-head primary unlikely. Their political brands would cannibalize each other. If one of them announces, the other almost certainly bows out.

So who’s more likely? Murphy. First, Booker already ran in 2020 and failed to break out of the single digits. He’s since struggled to re-energize his national persona. Murphy, on the other hand, has quietly been building a deeper foreign policy portfolio, beefing up his national presence—and yes, like Mayor Pete, Murphy has been sporting new facial hair.

Ruben Gallego & Mark Kelly

If both US Senators from Arizona run, it would cause quite the ruckus in my home state.

Ruben Gallego has been carving out a national profile. He ran for Senate in 2024 and is already eyeing early primary events like the Iowa State Fair. Gallego sees himself as a messenger for the Latino working class—a role the party has largely failed to fill with authenticity.

Mark Kelly, meanwhile, is the opposite in both style and substance. He’s quieter, more moderate, and more technocratic. He has a powerful personal story as an astronaut and Navy veteran, and he’s broadly popular in Arizona. But here’s the catch: his Senate seat is up again in 2028. And if the Democrats want to hold it, they’ll need Kelly on the ballot—not wandering around Des Moines in February shaking hands in the snow.

So barring a surprise retirement, Gallego is the more likely 2028 entrant. And if he runs, he’ll aim to be the Latino Obama: young, scrappy, unpolished, but genuine. He’s a long shot, but don’t rule him out.

I Didn’t Forget Kamala

Let’s talk about Kamala Harris, the previous Democratic presidential nominee.

I give her a coin flip’s chance to announce a presidential run. She’s not in my top tier. She’s not in my contingency tier either. She’s in a category of her own—a former vice president, a two-time national ticket contender, and one of the most recognizable names in the party.

Harris ran in the 2020 primary and underperformed. She served as Vice President and then went on to lose the 2024 election to a man convicted on 34 felony counts. That’s not just a footnote—that’s something people remember. Her approval numbers have rarely been strong. Her messaging has often been muddled. And within the party, she’s more tolerated than beloved.

That said, Harris still has a pathway. She could emerge as a compromise candidate—especially if party leaders are desperate to rally around someone familiar. Remember how Biden beat Bernie in 2020 after the party forced candidates like Buttigieg and Klobuchar to drop out? She also has the option of rebooting her brand with a 2026 run for California governor, which would give her executive credentials and distance from the Biden years.

I give Kamala Harris a 50/50 shot of running in 2028. Not because she’s the best option—but because, in a party that often defaults to “it’s her turn,” she may still be allowed to try.

A Celebrity Wildcard

Finally, let’s round things out with one long shot who could shake up the race. This is a name that seems absurd until it’s not.

Stephen A. Smith: I give him a 15% probability of running. The ESPN personality, hot take machine, and cultural lightning rod has already teased the idea of running. And in an era where politics is downstream from celebrity—and where Trump proved that rhetorical dominance can matter more than a resume—Stephen A. Smith entering the Democratic primary is not outside the realm of possibility.

He’s loud. He’s theatrical. He commands attention. And he speaks with a kind of moral urgency and cultural fluency that many current politicians lack. Would he win? It’s unlikely. But would he make a debate stage? Would he dominate a news cycle? Would he speak directly to constituencies—young men, Black voters, sports fans—that the party consistently struggles to reach? Yes. Absolutely.

What’s My Ranking?

You’ve made it this far. And now you’re wondering: out of these choices, who would I support?

So here’s my ranking, based on how likely I’d be to fill in their bubble on a primary ballot.

1. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

2. Ro Khanna

3. Andy Beshear

4. Pete Buttigieg

5. Gretchen Whitmer

6. Tim Walz

7. Jasmine Crockett

8. JB Pritzker

9. Stephen A. Smith

10. Ruben Gallego

11. Mark Kelly

12. Chris Murphy

13. Cory Booker

14. Kamala Harris

15. Josh Shapiro

16. Gavin Newsom

Conclusion

That’s a wrap on the first of many posts in this 2028 presidential election. I’ll keep watching, analyzing, and updating as this circus unfolds. But for now, the spotlight’s on and the players are starting to step forward. Let the show begin.

I hope you’ll join me again.